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ECONOMY
CPIX expectations fall to lowest level
Posted Tue, 18 Apr 2006

Inflation expectations for 2006 have fallen to their lowest levels recorded, the Bureau of Economic Research (BER) at the University of Stellenbosch said on Thursday.

According to the BER, South Africans now expect CPIX (headline consumer inflation excluding mortgage rates) to reach 4.4 percent during 2006 — down from their expectations of 5.2 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of last year. CPIX is the measure used by the Reserve Bank to target inflation.

For 2007, CPIX expectations fell from 5.2 percent (recorded in 2005's fourth quarter) to 4.6 percent, while respondents foresee CPIX at 4.8 percent in 2008.

The BER surveys analysts, business people and trade union officials to predict the inflationary outlook.

Of the three groups, trade union officials' expectations for CPIX in 2006 declined the most, falling from 5.4 percent in 2005's last quarter to just 4.3 percent in the first quarter of this year.

The BER conducts the survey on behalf of the SA Reserve Bank.

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