Five million HIV-positive in SA
1 December 2004
Five million South Africans, or 11% of the total population of 46-million, are infected with HIV, the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) said in a report released on World Aids Day.
The figure is slightly lower than the Department of Health's latest estimate of 5.6-million HIV-positive South Africans. In its survey of women attending public antenatal clinics for 2003, the department found that while HIV/Aids prevalence rates among South African teenagers had been declining since 1999, the general infection rate in the country remained critical.
The ASSA report echoed this finding, highlighting "the need to strengthen our efforts to respond to this epidemic and the critical need to target young people if the epidemic is to be slowed down in the future".
According to the report, Aids will account for
44% - or 310 000 out of 701 000 - deaths in South Afica in 2004. There are over one million maternal orphans under the age of 18 in the country, the report adds, "a quarter of whom were orphaned in the past year".
The report puts South Africans' current life expectancy at birth at about 50 years.
"Annual population growth is now about 0.8% and set to fall to half that level by 2010, but is not expected to become negative", the ASSA said in a statement.
In the absence of antiretroviral therapy, the report states, Aids deaths would rise to nearly half a million a year by 2010. However, depending on the extent of the drug rollout, antiretroviral therapy is expected to keep this number at between 290 000 (if 90% coverage is achieved within 9 years) to 450 000 (if only 20% coverage is achieved).
Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang told Parliament in November that the government's Aids drug rollout was gaining momentum, with the number of South Africans receiving
antiretroviral therapy at public facilities increasing from 11 250 at the end of August to 19 500 in October 2004.
The ASSA report accepts this figure - and adds that:
- 302-million male and 0.19-million female condoms were distributed by the Department of Health in 2003.
- The percentage of public facilities providing prevention of mother-to-child-transmission treatment increased from 20% in 2002 to 52% in 2003.
- The number of people counselled for testing in the public sector rose from 413 000 in 2002/03 to 691 000 in 2003/04.
At the same time, the report estimates that half a million South Africans infected with the virus are currently in need of antiretroviral therapy.
According to the report, HIV prevalence in SA is highest among women aged between 25 and 29 (29.7%), and second-highest among men aged 30-34 (26.4%).
SouthAfrica.info reporter
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