Recovery 'will start in 2010'
22 May 2009
South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to decline by 0.8% in 2009, the Stellenbosch-based Bureau for Economic Research (BER) said on Thursday.
GDP was expected to "recover moderately" to a growth rate of 2.5% in 2010, the bureau's director, Ben Smit, said in a speech prepared for delivery at a BER conference in Johannesburg.
"Employment, which tends to lag output growth, is expected to reflect similar trends, declining by 2.2% in 2009, recovering marginally - by 0.7% - in 2010."
Turning to inflation, Smit noted that the newly revised consumer inflation measure had already declined substantially from its peak of 13.7% in August 2008.
"The BER's forecast for inflation indicates an average of 6.8% in 2009, dipping below six percent in August but ending the year back at 6.9%."
Thereafter, inflation was expected to move back to within the three to six percent target range, averaging 5.3% in 2010, he said.
Sapa
