Dry summer forecast for SA
Mahlatsi Mgidi
13 October 2004
South Africa's farmers have been warned of the probability of a weak El Nino effect during the coming summer rainfall season.
The South African Weather Service says the season is not a favourable one for implementing new agricultural systems because there won't be enough soil moisture.
Meteorologist Willem Landman said in Pretoria on Tuesday that there was a good chance that the season would be dry and warm. "We urge everyone, especially farmers, to have a cautious approach towards the mid-summer season so they can reduce economic and social risk", he said.
Landman said there was a 60% probability that a weak El Nino might occur from December this year to February next year.
El Nino conditions are usually associated with increased chances of below-normal rainfall, warm and dry conditions.
"Probabilities of a below-normal rainfall season are forecast for the larger part of the country, and there is a small chance of an
above-normal rainfall season occuring", Landman said.
"Rather plan for a season that is likely to be drier and warmer than normal for summer", he cautioned.
He added, however, that current sea-surface temperature inconsistencies in the south Indian and south Atlantic Oceans were favourable for near-normal rainfall in the north east region of the country.
"Slightly wetter conditions are forecast for the north-eastern parts of the country, where average rainfall conditions are most likely to occur", he said.
Warmer than normal temperatures, with a 45% chance of above-normal temperatures, may be experienced in the Western Cape and the southern parts of the Eastern Cape.
Source: BuaNews
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